LONDON: Heat linked to an unusually strong El Niño could contribute to about 451,000 excess deaths over the next six months, according to a new report based on research by the Climate Impact Lab.
The estimate reflects the potential health impact of higher temperatures associated with El Niño, a climate pattern marked by unusually warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific.
The current El Niño is being described as exceptionally strong and could reach peak intensity toward the end of 2026, according to the report.
El Niño can influence weather patterns around the world, contributing to heat waves, drought and changes in rainfall. Extreme heat can pose serious health risks, particularly for older people, those with heart or respiratory conditions and people who work outdoors for extended periods.
The study estimates that Indonesia alone could see about 19,300 additional deaths associated with the heat.
Researchers also warned that the effects of El Niño could extend beyond extreme heat to include drought, wildfires and disruptions to rainfall patterns.
The estimated 451,000 deaths are a model-based projection rather than a confirmed forecast. The actual impact could vary depending on the severity and duration of heat exposure and the effectiveness of measures such as heat-action plans, early warnings, cooling facilities and access to medical care.
