A United Nations report warned that current climate policies could result in global warming exceeding 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the century, which is more than twice the target set nearly a decade ago.
The annual Emissions Gap report assesses the gap between countries’ climate pledges and what is needed to limit warming and indicates that global temperatures could increase by as much as 3.1°C (5.6°F) above pre-industrial levels by 2100 unless governments intensify efforts to reduce emissions.
The Paris Agreement of 2015 aimed to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C (2.7°F) to prevent severe climate impacts.
However, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres highlighted the urgent situation, stating, "We're teetering on a planetary tightrope," and emphasized that leaders must act swiftly to close the emissions gap to avoid climate disaster.
According to the report, global greenhouse gas emissions rose by 1.3% between 2022 and 2023, reaching a record high of 57.1 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent. If nations continue with their current commitments, temperatures would still increase between 2.6°C (4.7°F) and 2.8°C (5°F) by the century's end.
With the planet already warmed by approximately 1.3°C (2.3°F), the upcoming U.N. climate summit (COP29) in Azerbaijan will be a key moment for nations to strengthen their emissions-cutting strategies.
The negotiations in Baku will help shape each country’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) due by February 2025.
The report suggests that for the world to stay within 1.5°C of warming, annual greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by 42% by 2030 and 57% by 2035.
Inger Andersen, executive director of the U.N. Environment Programme, urged countries to use the Baku talks to increase the ambition of their NDCs, stating that "every fraction of a degree avoided counts."
