The FIFA World Cup, the biggest event in global football, is set to begin on June 12, featuring a newly expanded format for the first time in history.
The tournament will be jointly hosted by the United States, Mexico, and Canada, marking the first edition to include 48 participating teams.
The teams have been divided into 12 groups of four, with a total of 104 matches scheduled. The top two teams from each group will advance to the knockout stage, which will feature the introduction of a Round of 32.
With the expanded structure, predicting a winner has become increasingly difficult. However, the Opta supercomputer has provided data-driven projections based on more than 10,000 simulations.
According to the model, Spain are the strongest favourites to win the 2026 World Cup, with a 16.1% chance of lifting the trophy.
France are ranked second, followed by England in third place and Argentina in fourth. All four teams are considered strong contenders, each with more than a 10% probability of winning the tournament.
Despite being favourites, Spain also face significant uncertainty, with a 52.1% chance of failing to reach the quarter-finals.
However, if they progress beyond that stage, their odds improve, with a 39% chance of reaching the semi-finals and 25.6% likelihood of reaching the final.
The model suggests that while the expanded format increases unpredictability, Spain remain the clear statistical favourite to win the tournament.
More read, Iraq name 26-man Squad for 2026 World Cup
Earlier, Iraq head coach Graham Arnold named his final 26-man squad for the World Cup, placing strong emphasis on the core group of players who secured qualification through the intercontinental playoffs.
Veteran striker Aymen Hussein will lead Iraq’s attack in North America, with the experienced forward expected to play a key role for the national side.
The squad also includes Ipswich Town forward Ali Al-Hamadi, along with promising young attackers Ali Jassim and Youssef Amyn, forming a dynamic frontline for the tournament.
