UNITED NATIONS: A new report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a UN agency based in Geneva, warns that global temperatures are likely to keep rising, with an 80% chance that at least one year between now and 2029 will be even hotter than previous records.
According to the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, the planet is expected to experience average temperatures between 1.2°C and 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900) over the next five years.
In 2024, the WMO estimated that the global average temperature was already 1.34°C to 1.41°C higher than pre-industrial levels. Looking ahead, the organization projects that the 20-year average warming from 2015 to 2034 will be around 1.44°C above that historical baseline.
The report also highlights a concerning 86% probability that global average temperatures will surpass 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in at least one of the next five years, and a 1% chance that a year could exceed 2°C of warming.
There is a 70 per cent chance that the five-year average itself will exceed this 1.5 degree threshold.
The WMO stressed that the 1.5°C Paris Agreement target refers to long-term averages over 20 years, meaning its threshold has not been breached quite yet.
However, these near-term spikes are warning signs of an accelerating climate crisis.
The forecast also highlights regional precipitation impacts, including wetter-than-average conditions expected in the African Sahel, northern Europe, and South Asia. Conversely, the Amazon region could see continued drought.
The situation is even more catastrophic in the Arctic than in the rest of the world. The average Arctic temperature over the next five winters (November to March) is expected to be 2.4°C warmer than the 1991–2020 average, more than three and a half times the increase in the global average temperature.
Sea ice is expected to keep shrinking, particularly in the Barents, Bering, and Okhotsk Seas, contributing to rising sea levels and disrupted weather patterns worldwide.
As the world enters this critical window, the UN agency urged climate action to prevent even more dangerous warming in the decades ahead and keep long-term warming below the 1.5°C limit.
