WASHINGTON: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says there is a more than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño developing in the coming months, with a 75% chance that the event could reach historic levels.
The agency's latest outlook also indicates that parts of the United States could experience above-average precipitation and temperatures during October, November and December.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center released updated seasonal precipitation and temperature outlook maps on Sept. 17, showing where wetter and warmer-than-average conditions are more likely during the final months of 2026.
According to the precipitation outlook, areas shown in green have a 33% to 80% probability of receiving above-average precipitation. The forecast does not specify whether the additional precipitation will come as rain or snow.
Parts of California, Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, South Dakota, Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Alaska could see wetter-than-average conditions.
The outlook also shows all of New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina and Washington, D.C., with elevated chances of above-average precipitation.
Meanwhile, NOAA's temperature outlook indicates that much of the United States could experience warmer-than-average conditions during the final three months of the year. Depending on the region, the probability of above-average temperatures ranges from 33% to 80%.
Despite the broader expectation of warmer weather, historical climate patterns indicate that some parts of the country could still experience significant snowfall as 2026 draws to a close.
El Niño is a recurring climate pattern associated with unusually warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It can influence weather patterns across the United States and other parts of the world.
