- Analysts question the best approach to rescuing the children without causing harm.
- Since the first major school abduction in Borno state's Chibok village in 2014, at least 1,400 students have been abducted.
- Gumi cites an "underground ethnic war" between the Fulani ethnic group and others.
Meanwhile, The Associated Press reported that at least two people with extensive knowledge of the security crisis in Nigeria’s northwest identified the abductors of the schoolchildren in the state of Kaduna as known individuals who are hiding in the vast ungoverned and unoccupied forests of the region. They both urged the government to engage in dialogue with the armed groups to resolve the protracted conflict.
Since the first major school abduction in Borno state's Chibok village in 2014, which stunned the world, kidnappers have abducted at least 1,400 students from Nigerian schools. According to their schools and parents, most of those eventually released only regained their freedom after ransom payments, despite the Nigerian government not admitting to paying the ransom.
The group responsible for the Kaduna attack has not been claimed. However, residents attribute the incident to bandit groups known for mass killings and kidnappings for ransom in northwestern and central regions. Most of these groups consist of herders in conflict with host communities. Unlike the Chibok girls, who were seized by Islamic militants from the Boko Haram group, there is no suspected religious motive in the recent abductions.
Murtala Ahmed Rufa’i, an associate professor of peace and conflict studies at Usmanu Danfodiyo University in Sokoto state and one of Nigeria’s foremost conflict researchers, stated that the mastermind of the Kaduna abduction and other bandit leaders are known.
“His father is alive,” he said of the suspect behind the Kaduna abduction. “These bandits are people that are known by their names, families, and by their locations. If you want to engage, you talk to the parents. They are criminals (but) still have parents that they listen to,” he said.
Sheikh Ahmad Gumi, a Nigerian cleric known to have access to the bandits and who has negotiated with them in the past, stated that at least 100 of the schoolchildren abducted in Kaduna are estimated to be aged 12 or younger, fitting an established pattern where children are seen as easy targets to mount pressure on the government. According to him, the children's abduction is not driven by the need for ransoms, and such abductions can only be resolved through negotiations with armed groups.
Gumi stated that there is “an underground ethnic war” between the herdsmen from the Fulani ethnic group and other, more urbanized parts of Nigeria, emphasizing that "it is more than an economic motive." His comments echoed claims previously made by the herdsmen that they struggle with less development than other regions. Security operations to rescue those kidnapped sometimes stretch into months, leaving families desperate to meet the ransom demands.
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