JERUSALEM: Israel will hold a general election on Tuesday, Oct. 27, its first national vote since the Hamas-led attacks of Oct. 7, 2023, and the subsequent conflicts in Gaza, Iran, and with Hezbollah and the Houthis.
Polls show the blocs linked to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the opposition, led by former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, locked in a virtual tie ahead of the vote. Neither side is clearly positioned to secure the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-member Knesset.
AI shapes the campaign
Efforts to mobilize supporters, win voters and attack opponents are playing out online through social media advertisements and doctored AI videos. Many depict a bleak vision of Israel under a rival government, depending on whether the party is on the right or center.
On Thursday, the Israeli liberal daily Haaretz reported that dozens of online bots created to undermine the Iranian government were being repurposed to spread campaign propaganda supporting Netanyahu and his Likud party, and to warn voters of the dangers posed by Eisenkot and former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, part of the opposition bloc.
Both camps are pushing AI-generated and deepfake videos on X. Several show Netanyahu confronting his alleged failings before the Hamas-led attack of Oct. 7, 2023. Others portray the opposition as sympathetic to Arab parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel, which many view as potential kingmakers in the coming election.
“We’re competing against parties with far greater budgets and technological resources, particularly the Likud,” said Mauricio Lapchik, director of the Arab-dominated Joint List Hebrew-language campaign. “The use of technology is clearly deepening an already unequal playing field … We may not have the same resources, but we are convinced that our message matters more than the artificial technology behind it.”
Electoral weapons systems
Significant resources have been deployed by the Israeli right against the left-wing Joint List — an alliance of Hadash, Balad and Ta’al — and Ra’am, also known as the United Arab List. Palestinian citizens of Israel generally support one of these two blocs, and all the parties have faced legal challenges before the election.
Likud had sought to use Elector, an app that tracks voter turnout on election day, but was restricted by the Central Elections Committee over privacy concerns. Instead, it will use a new app, Victory 26. Unlike Elector, it does not reveal voters’ identities but would allow Likud activists and officials to identify areas with low turnout, manually record who has voted, and target those who have not.
Likud is encouraging supporters and potential sympathizers to download and use the app on election day, according to Haaretz.
The app could play a crucial role in an election likely to be decided by turnout.
“Elector and similar programmes are very basic compared to what the Israeli military is capable of now,” said Sebastian Ben Daniel, a doctoral researcher into algorithms, computability and AI. “Israel has the perfect laboratory with which to develop this kind of technology.”
Privacy is a particular concern for Palestinian citizens of Israel, who make up about 20% of the population and whose political activity is already heavily monitored.
In recent weeks, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich caused uproar when he released an AI video showing the Supreme Court’s president, a justice and the attorney general — frequent targets of the far-right government who have sought to shake off judicial oversight — being violently dragged from an anti-government protest.
In another AI video shared by Netanyahu earlier this year, his key political rival Eisenkot is seen running toward an AI figure many believe resembled his son, Gal, who was killed while taking part in the genocide in Gaza, before passing him entirely and embracing the head of the Arab Ra’am party, Mansour Abbas.
There has also been heavy use of AI to demonize Palestinian citizens of Israel. A video shared by far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir portrayed the people of Gaza as donkeys and showed them being “herded” to Paris. Ben-Gvir has called for the ethnic cleansing of Gaza through “voluntary emigration” and frequently targets Palestinians in political stunts, including humiliating detainees and prisoners in Israeli jails.
Netanyahu and Ben-Gvir’s campaigns have also made heavy use of bots to amplify their political messaging, according to numerous accounts.
“The online campaign has been especially violent. AI, algorithms and data management are all utilised to cement what we call ‘affective polarisation’,” said Roi Zur, a lecturer at the University of Essex and specialist in voting behavior and election strategies. The term refers to the entrenchment of political blocs and increased animosity toward the opposing side.
“Affective polarisation targets people at the fringe, who might be thinking of voting for a party in an opposing bloc, and brings them back into the fold,” Zur said.
Because the election will likely be determined by smaller parties and overall turnout, that dynamic is particularly significant.
“Turnout and management of the parties will be essential,” Zur said. “If you look at large secular cities, such as Tel Aviv or Haifa, turnout is typically only 60%. If you compare that to cities and towns with a large Haredi population, such as Jerusalem and Bnei Brak, the turnout is around 80 to 85%, so a large part of the campaigning is also to get people out to vote by threatening them with the ‘other’.”
West Bank crackdown
All West Bank land crossings will be closed during Tuesday’s election, Israel’s military said, and Palestinian workers will be barred from entering all settlements.
The restrictions come amid a crackdown in the occupied West Bank after Palestinian gunmen killed two Israeli soldiers in the territory.
The Israel Defense Forces announced a “ban on the entry and exit of Palestinian workers throughout Judea and Samaria and the Jordan Valley, including industrial zones, as well as the closure of all land crossings” on Tuesday.
It said most workers would also be barred from settlements from Sunday, with the exception of industrial zones and a limited number of other areas.
Before the Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel, more than 100,000 Palestinian workers were permitted to enter Israel. Since then, only a small fraction have had their permits restored.
Netanyahu announced a major operation Friday in response to the killing of two Israeli soldiers by two Palestinian gunmen in an attack on a checkpoint. Three other Israeli soldiers were injured, and the gunmen were also killed.
Israeli forces have been demolishing homes and businesses in Hebron, with hundreds of families displaced. Defense Minister Israel Katz said about 2,000 residents had been displaced by the operation, which has left at least one entire street appearing flattened, according to footage shared online.
Even before the entry and exit bans were announced Sunday, the military had cordoned off the city, heavily restricting movement for its 200,000 residents.
Israeli forces commonly demolish the homes of Palestinians suspected of carrying out attacks on Israelis in the West Bank — a practice Israeli rights groups have criticized as collective punishment.
Friday’s shooting came during a tense period, days before Tuesday’s election.
In an interview with Israel’s i24 television channel released Saturday, Netanyahu threatened a “very big surprise” for the Palestinian Authority, which governs parts of the territory.
Hebron Mayor Youssef al-Jaabari said the operation was being “driven by the elections,” accusing Netanyahu and his ministers of attempting to secure the votes of the far right and settlers.
On Saturday, thousands gathered in Tel Aviv for a large anti-government demonstration organized by the October Council, a group founded by families of victims and hostages taken by militants on Oct. 7, 2023, to demand accountability for the failure to prevent the attack.
“Three days before the election, we will hold the culminating event marking three years of struggle to uncover the truth, demand accountability, and establish a state commission of inquiry,” the October Council wrote on X ahead of the rally.
The gathering included leaders of the four main opposition parties, including Eisenkot, who is neck and neck with Netanyahu.
The election comes amid debate over national security, accountability for the October 2023 attacks, military conscription, judicial reform and the rising cost of living. Observers have described it as “one of the most pivotal elections in Israel’s history, with global implications.”
How Israel’s system works
Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, has 120 seats. A governing bloc needs at least 61 seats to secure a majority.
The country uses proportional representation, meaning governments have always been coalitions of multiple parties. Parties must negotiate with potential partners to assemble a governing majority, a process that can take weeks or even months.
President Isaac Herzog will invite the candidate he believes has the best chance of forming a government to build a coalition. If negotiations fail, the mandate can pass to another candidate. If that attempt also fails, new elections are called.
Between 2019 and 2022, Israel held five separate elections as parties struggled repeatedly to cooperate. If no bloc can secure a majority, a minority government may also take power
