- European politicians and diplomats are preparing for changes in their relationship with the US in the event of a second Donald Trump presidency.
- Ohio Senator JD Vance, a critic of US aid to Ukraine, has urged Europe to recognize the US's need to "pivot" its focus to East Asia.
- EU diplomats acknowledge the implications of Trump's second term, describing the EU as a sailing boat preparing for a storm.
Mr. Vance, a vocal critic of US aid to Ukraine, stated at this year’s Munich Security Conference that Europe should recognize the US's need to "pivot" its focus to East Asia.
"The American security blanket has allowed European security to atrophy," he said.
Nils Schmid, a senior MP in German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s party, told the BBC that he believed a Republican presidency would continue to remain within NATO, even if JD Vance appeared "more isolationist" and Donald Trump remained "unpredictable". However, he cautioned about the possibility of a new round of "trade wars" with the US under a second Trump presidency.
An EU diplomat remarked that after four years of Donald Trump, no one was naïve: "We understand the implications if Trump returns for a second term, regardless of his running mate." Portraying the EU as a sailing boat preparing for a storm, the diplomat, who preferred not to be named, added that regardless of what they might secure, rough seas were inevitable.
The US is Ukraine's biggest ally, and President Volodymyr Zelensky said this week: "I'm not afraid about him becoming president, we will work together."
He also expressed the belief that most of the Republican party supported Ukraine and its people. Mr. Zelensky and Mr. Trump also share a common friend in Boris Johnson, the former UK prime minister, who has consistently advocated for continued aid for Ukraine and recently met the former president at the Republican National Convention.
Following the meeting, Mr. Johnson posted on X that he had “no doubt that [Mr Trump] will be strong and decisive in supporting that country and defending democracy”.
But even if that sentiment holds, it might not apply to Mr. Vance, who, days before the full-scale invasion, stated on a podcast that he “doesn’t care what happens in Ukraine, one way or the other”. He also played a key role in delaying a $60 billion military aid package from Washington.
"We need to try and convince him otherwise," says Yevhen Mahda, the Executive Director of the Institute of World Policy think tank in Kyiv.
"A fact we can use is that he fought in Iraq, therefore he should be invited to Ukraine so he can see with his own eyes what is happening and how American money is spent."
The question for Kyiv will be how much he can influence the decisions of his new boss. Yevhen Mahda agrees that Trump’s unpredictability could pose a problem for Kyiv in the lead-up to the US presidential election.
Hungary’s Viktor Orban, the staunchest supporter of the Trump-Vance ticket in the European Union, returned recently from a visit to meet the Republican candidate after visiting Mr. Zelensky and President Putin, with whom he maintains close ties. In a letter to EU leaders, Mr. Orban stated that a victorious Donald Trump would not even wait to be inaugurated as president before swiftly calling for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.
"He has detailed and well-founded plans for this," the letter states.
This week, Mr. Zelensky himself stated that Russia should attend a peace summit, possibly next November, and he has pledged to present a “fully ready plan”. He clarified that he had not faced Western pressure to take this step. Viktor Orban's recent "peace missions" to Moscow and Beijing have led to accusations that he is abusing his country’s six-month rotating presidency of the European Council. European Commission officials have been instructed not to participate in meetings in Hungary due to Mr. Orban’s actions.
During the Trump presidency, the US imposed tariffs on EU-produced steel and aluminum. Although Joe Biden’s administration paused them, Trump has since suggested a 10% tariff on all overseas imports if he returns to the White House. The possibility of renewed economic confrontation with the US will be viewed as a negative, even disastrous, outcome in most European capitals.
"The only thing we know for sure is there will be punitive tariffs leveled on the European Union so we have to prepare for another round of trade wars," said Nils Schmid, the Social Democrats’ foreign policy lead in the Bundestag.
Earlier this year, JD Vance criticized Berlin for its military preparedness, singling it out for not having an adequate industrial base to support arms production. While he clarified that he did not intend to "beat up" on Germany, he highlighted the shortcomings in its military capabilities.
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