- The UN warns of an 80% chance that Earth's temperatures will exceed 1.5°C in the next five years.
- The 2015 Paris Climate Accords targeted a 1.5°C rise over decades, not short-term spans.
- Temperatures are rising, with 2023 being the hottest year on record.
The 2015 Paris Climate Accords aimed to cap the global temperature rise at 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, but the UN's World Meteorological Organization (WMO) clarified that this target was intended for long-term temperature increases over decades, not short-term spans of one to five years.
The probability of temporarily surpassing the 1.5°C threshold in the next five years has been increasing steadily since 2015, when the chance was nearly zero, according to the UN's weather and climate agency. The WMO stated that there is an 80% likelihood of the annual average global temperature temporarily exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one of the next five years.
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UN Forecasts Record-High Temperatures Over the Next 5 Years![/caption]
Intense climate changes have started causing significant damage globally, leading to extreme weather events, floods, droughts, rapid glacier melting, and rising sea levels.
"We are heading towards unprecedented warming," said WMO deputy chief Ko Barrett in Geneva. "WMO is warning that we will be surpassing the 1.5°C threshold temporarily more frequently." Barrett also noted that "we have already exceeded this level temporarily for specific months.''
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Temperatures are increasing, with 2023 being the hottest year on record so far, and predictions suggest that 2024 may be even hotter. The WMO forecasts that the average near-surface temperature for each year from 2024 to 2028 will be 1.1–1.9 °C higher than pre-industrial levels from 1850 to 1900.
