Following the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit held in China, a new debate has emerged on the international stage: Could the growing closeness between India and China be a cause for concern for Pakistan?
Changing Dynamics Between India and China:
India and China—two nations that, until recently, were considered rivals due to border disputes, trade tensions, and water-related issues—now seem to be moving closer. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s statement that “the dragon and the elephant can dance together” and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s remarks that “the interests of 2.8 billion people are interlinked” indicate a shift towards a new level of engagement between the two Asian giants.
What’s Behind the Rapprochement: Necessity or Policy Shift?
Experts believe this warming of relations is neither coincidental nor temporary, but rather a strategic necessity in response to global political shifts. Former U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff threats against both countries have pushed India and China to rethink their regional priorities.
As a result, both nations have focused on boosting bilateral trade, relaxing visa policies, restoring direct flight routes, and promoting regional cooperation under multilateral platforms like the SCO.
Should Pakistan Be Worried?
China is Pakistan’s longstanding strategic partner. Projects like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), robust defense cooperation, and consistent diplomatic support have made the China-Pakistan friendship often described as “higher than the Himalayas and deeper than the oceans.”
Against this backdrop, China’s outreach to India may appear alarming for Pakistan, especially given the strained India-Pakistan relations.
However, at the SCO summit, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif reiterated that the China-Pakistan relationship remains “unbreakable and strong,” signaling that China’s improving ties with India do not necessarily mean a downgrading of its relations with Pakistan.
Some analysts argue that the India-China rapprochement might benefit Pakistan, rather than hurt it:
Improved China-India ties could reduce tensions in South Asia, creating a more stable regional environment from which Pakistan can also benefit diplomatically and economically.
China’s policy of enhancing trade with all regional countries, not just India, could open up new avenues of economic cooperation for Pakistan.
Strategic Balancing:
If China draws closer to India, it may also influence India to adopt a more conciliatory approach towards Pakistan, potentially reducing hostility and opening doors for dialogue.
However, there's also a need for caution. If China begins prioritizing India over Pakistan in key areas, Islamabad may have to recalibrate its foreign policy and strategic alignment to maintain regional balance.
At present, the growing India-China closeness does not pose an immediate threat to Pakistan. However, it's a development that Islamabad cannot afford to ignore.
