New York: The US stock market is on track to achieve a milestone seen only a handful of times since the 1940s: three consecutive years of double-digit gains.
The S&P 500 is poised to rise about 17% this year, following gains of 23% in 2024 and 24% in 2023, underscoring the market’s resilience despite tariffs concerns, geopolitical tensions, volatility fears and prolonged political uncertainty.
Such a streak is rare. The S&P 500 has managed three straight years of double-digit gains only five times before, according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research. In two of those instances, the rally extended into a fourth year, while the 1990s saw an unprecedented five-year run.
Markets were lifted in 2025 by strong corporate earnings, sustained enthusiasm around artificial intelligence and optimism over interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
“Equity markets are ending the year on a high note, driven by AI momentum and a resilient economy that has shrugged off fiscal and political headwinds,” said Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler.
A year marked by sharp swings
The year began with optimism after the S&P 500 posted its strongest back-to-back performance since the 1990s.
However, markets stumbled in late January following the debut of a Chinese AI chatbot by DeepSeek, raising concerns over excessive AI spending in Silicon Valley. Stocks later recovered as investors doubled down on US leadership in AI.
Volatility surged again in the spring after President Donald Trump introduced sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs, rattling global markets.
Stocks rebounded sharply once the administration softened its stance, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching record highs by late June. Gains continued through the second half of the year, supported by earnings growth and lower interest rates.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 13.7% this year, hitting a series of record highs after rebounding from an April slump. The Nasdaq Composite rose 21%, making it the top-performing major index for the third straight year, largely driven by tech and AI stocks.
Bonds and Dollar
The Treasury market stabilized after spring volatility, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling from 4.57% to 4.12%, helping keep mortgage rates in check. The 30-year yield ended slightly higher at 4.8% amid lingering inflation concerns.
Meanwhile, the US dollar suffered its worst year since 2017. The dollar index fell 9.5%, pressured by lower interest rates, questions over Federal Reserve independence and uncertainty around US trade policy.
Commodities and precious metals
Gold posted a standout year, surging 66% to its strongest annual gain since 1979, briefly topping $4,500 an ounce in December. Silver soared 164%, while platinum and palladium gained 144% and 87%, respectively. Copper rose 43% on strong industrial demand and trade concerns.
Oil prices, however, ended lower despite geopolitical tensions. US crude fell about 18% to $58 a barrel, while Brent crude declined 17% to $61.97.
Global markets and Bitcoin
International markets outperformed US stocks, aided by AI enthusiasm and a weaker dollar. South Korea’s Kospi surged 76%, Japan’s Nikkei gained 26%, and European defense stocks rallied strongly.
Bitcoin, by contrast, ended the year lower, falling about 6.6% to around $88,000. After hitting a record high of $126,000 in October on crypto-friendly policy hopes, prices retreated amid late-year sell-offs.
Despite bouts of historic volatility, 2025 is shaping up as another remarkable year for global markets—one defined by resilience, rapid technological change and shifting economic currents.
