BEIJING: China’s exports and imports grew faster than expected in October, while its monthly trade surplus shrank sharply, official data showed Tuesday, even as the surplus for the year so far topped $1 trillion.
Exports rose 35.2% from a year earlier, beating the 33.5% increase forecast in a Reuters poll, though slowing from 36.3% growth in September. Imports jumped 41.6%, accelerating from 31% in September and far exceeding analysts’ estimate of 32%.
The import growth was the strongest since May 2021, driven mainly by demand for technology-related goods, critical minerals such as copper, and energy supplies including liquefied natural gas, oil and coal, said Tianchen Xu, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
By CNBC’s calculations of the official figures, imports of high-tech products surged 72% in value from a year ago. Crude oil imports grew about 41%, LNG about 50% and coal about 60%.
The monthly trade surplus fell to $105.3 billion, the lowest since April, according to LSEG data. The year-to-date surplus stands at $1.04 trillion, compared with a record $1.2 trillion for all of 2025.
Trading partners have increasingly urged Beijing to boost domestic demand and rebalance its economy.
Domestic demand remains weak
Strong exports have allowed Chinese policymakers to rely on moderate stimulus to meet this year’s growth target of 4.5% to 5%. Household consumption, however, remains soft, with retail sales growing just 1.1% in September, underscoring the imbalance in the world’s second-largest economy.
Much of the export surge reflects strong demand for Chinese chips and other artificial intelligence-related hardware. A slowdown in the global AI buildout could dent that momentum and squeeze exporters’ margins.
Some analysts see signs of cooling. “Momentum looks to have slowed,” said Nguyen Hoang Nam, China economist at Capital Economics, who estimated a seasonally adjusted 2% month-on-month decline in exports.
A survey by China Beige Book found new domestic and export orders slowed in October compared with a year earlier. Official PMI data also showed factory activity unexpectedly contracted last month as overseas orders cooled. “The stronger side of the economy got weaker,” the New York-based research firm said in an Oct. 30 note.
Trade with U.S. and Europe
Exports to the United States rose 32.9% in value from a year earlier, while imports from the U.S. grew nearly 35%, leaving a surplus of $32.7 billion. Shipments to the U.S. are up 12.1% so far this year, helped in part by a low base: they plunged 20% last year after sharp tariff increases.
In September, Washington and Beijing agreed to extend a broader trade truce by two months, through January. The deal included export-control waivers for certain critical minerals and special port fees on each other’s vessels.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump are expected to meet for the third time this year at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen, China, next week.
Exports to the European Union grew 24.4% in October, while imports from the bloc fell more than 4%, widening China’s surplus with the EU to $33.4 billion.
Last month, the EU reached an agreement with Beijing to limit imports of Chinese hybrid vehicles over the coming years as part of efforts to narrow its trade deficit with China. The curbs take effect Dec. 1, but analysts say they will do little to contain China’s export boom.
The cap of 350,000 imported cars per year exceeds the 300,000 hybrids China exported to Europe last year, but is well below the annualized pace of 800,000 units over the past three months, according to Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
“Europe still is a long way from a coherent trade and industrial policy with respect to autos, let alone a coherent economic policy towards overall trade with China,” said Setser, a former U.S. Treasury official who specializes in global trade and capital flows.
